Ph.D.Sc. Sandi Dizdarević 

Assistant professor at the Faculty of Law and Security, 

University of Modern Sciences CKM Mostar

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37458/ssj.4.1.9

Abstract: Migrant waves occurring at the beginning of this century reflect geopolitical processes in certain parts of the world. By running away from danger for the purpose of existential survival, scientific discourse presents a responsibility that rests on the fine line between rights and safety. On the one hand, the right of every individual or group to a life worthy of man, and on the other hand, for scientists, a new phenomenon that takes on elements of modified hybrid as well as military strategies in contemporary security challenges. The recent past teaches us that we must observe such phenomena also from a security perspective, dissecting them to the smallest detail to be able to provide scientific security answers. The phenomenon of migration contains psycho-security assumptions that terrorist groups can use with the aim of achieving terrorist goals and thus putting European security in question. The aim of the work is to identify the space for early radicalization within the migrant population due to their current psycho-social and physical vulnerability. The obtained results can contribute to the creation of a multidisciplinary approach in the early detection of individuals or groups that, by abusing the psycho-social and physical state of an individual within the migrant population, try to produce a potential terrorist. Such knowledge, through the interpreted results of the research, enables a proper assessment of the migrants themselves, and especially of the terrorists from the security aspect, and the team provides a contribution to the overall security environment of the migrants as well as the overall European security. The justification of such scientific discourses and works through the application of scientific methodology will contribute to the understanding of existing practice, the determination of possible shortcomings and the modification of existing models with the aim of increasing the level of safety.

Keywords: migrants, terrorists, phases, radicalization, psychology.

The contemporary European migration crisis is characterized by several features, starting from a large number of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, and lately also from the territory of the Russian Federation and Chechnya. Their movements are characterized not only in a statistically large number, but also in formational military movements of small groups, which has the additional sub-classification that in a greater number of frequencies it is made up of men. Such migratory movements have been a major humanitarian, political, economic, security, police-criminological and geopolitical topic for several years now, more precisely since 2013. A Polish scientist (Bzenzinski, 2001.) indicates that a key driver can be explained by the theory of the Great Chess Game: the establishment of a new global balance of power. Along with the migrant crisis as a consequence of geopolitical processes that intersect in the Middle East, Africa, and now also in Ukraine, in the context of security sciences, intelligence sciences, and police-criminology sciences, the context of the global anti-terrorist fight against the Islamic State must also be observed (in hereinafter ID, ISIL), which over time, due to its own ideology, grew into a paramilitary organization that, according to data available from open sources, has over 50,000 soldiers, supporters, and like-minded people located in different parts of the world. The war, that is, the armed conflict on the territory of Syria, and the geopolitical influences taking place in that area have caused numerous tectonic movements of part of the population and movements towards the European Union, via the Western-Balkan transit route. The area of geopolitical spheres of interest is certainly Afghanistan and Iraq, but from the geopolitical position of the Western-Balkan routes in recent migrations, the most interesting is certainly the one taking place in Turkey, with members of the Kurdish people. The Turkish influence and geopolitical processes are interesting in terms of security because of the existence of negative facts, namely that the Kurdish people, as one of the most numerous, are actually the least represented in modern migrations. In his study entitled New World Order (Stone, 2022.), Stone points out that it is about a new balance of power, i.e., the New World Order. He defines it as: "A plan to deny freedom and self-determination to individuals around the world, and to create a world government without the consent of the governed." It is about an attempt to be returned several hundred years back - to the good old feudalism and slavery - and judging by the already mentioned Princeton research on oligarchy, these goals have already been achieved without our consent". The current process of mass population migrations from areas affected by war conflicts does not in itself represent a security problem, however its consequences and activities, that are a by-product of this phenomenon, can classify it in the category of security challenges, risks, and threats (Eraković & Erkić, 2016).

The conclusion of Eraković and Erkić undoubtedly points to the correct interpretation that the migrant process itself is not a security phenomenon, but that the cause of it, as well as the consequences of the migrant processes, can represent serious security threats and risks to the internal security of the countries located on the Western-Balkan route, but also the countries of the European Union itself. However, even this formulation of a conclusion from a scientific point of view could be subject to reconsideration, especially since such conclusions were drawn with scientific facts based on the characteristics of migrations that took place in the 60s in the last century. The scientific fact that the then migrations of the citizens of Turkey, then Yugoslavia and other countries had more positive effects for the European Union is proven by the fact that there were generally no security – related events that led to, or posed a threat, to the national security of some of the countries of the European Union (hereinafter referred to as the EU). Modern migrations, in contrast to the past, in their existence, therefore, the phenomenon contains security characteristics such as:

The very facts that arise from the characteristics and detected morphological characteristics of modern migrations point to the need for vigilance, suspicion, but also scientific and professional study. The scientific need is reflected primarily in the study of the phenomenon, determining its characteristics, such as the direction of movement, the discovery of logistics services, the system of illegal crossings, identities, and the need to hide them, with a special emphasis on determining motives. By studying phenomenological characteristics, it is possible and contributes to the creation of security predispositions to reduce the risk to national security, but also the general security of citizens. Within the framework of migrant processes, considering the already established characteristics, a large number of security scientists and experts agree with the possibility of infiltration by extremist and terrorist groups and individuals. Such modes of infiltration have already been recorded and explained in terms of security throughout history. In contrast to this modus operandi, as well as the measures taken by the intelligence, security, and police services of all countries on the Western – Balkan route, from a scientific point of view, a significant space for the operationalization of the recruitment of individuals within the migrant population has been detected. Modern security theories have long abandoned the concept of an exclusive military doctrine, considering that even non – military means can cause serious threats and negative consequences for the security of a state. As geopolitical processes rarely take place on an instant basis, but are carefully calculated, strategically planned, then it is quite justified to observe the movement of migrant waves, the characteristics and behaviour of individuals and groups from a psychological and security perspective. Psychological security review, as a scientific concept by applying scientific methodology and methods, enables us to understand the psychological characteristics within the migrant process, their manifestations, vulnerabilities, frustrations, which in triangulation with security offensive measures of potential terrorist organizations can lead from a completely conformist individual to an individual with extremist and in the last instance terrorist aspirations. Precisely for these reasons, it is expedient to detect possible processes in this process by applying the concept of early detection of radicalization in the context of terrorism.

The seriousness and difficulty of dealing with, detecting, studying, and explaining security phenomena, including contemporary migrations, imposed on every organized society, especially in the areas of the Western – Balkan routes, certain demands that the countries had to place before their social subjects of security in order to maintain a stable security and political conditions. Thus, social and state control, which also included police – criminological and intelligence control, includes: "the effort of society, or its ruling segment, to have supervision and review of social processes and events as a whole, but also in relation to individuals and smaller groups, which they strive to keep within acceptable and desirable frameworks and limits, i.e. in accordance with generally accepted values and legislation" (Ilijaš, et.al., 2002). Social control, as well as crime control, and phenomena such as contemporary population migration represent a process by which members of the migrant population are given support for desirable forms of behaviour. According to Durkheim, as one of the authors of the theory of social control, it begins with the reconstruction of the normal, moral, and social structure. Criminology, and thus all scientific disciplines derived from the study of criminality, that is, crime, and especially criminal psychology as a practical activity, is mostly manifested in the immediate practice of police bodies (Krivokapić, 2002). Conformity is a change in behaviour or beliefs towards a group as a result of real or imagined group pressure (Pennington, 1997). According to the author of the same name, conformity implies two things:

As such, conformity can be the result of direct or indirect pressure from individuals or groups within the migrant population, but it can also be the result of a blind assumption that the behaviour of the majority is justified. In the applicable sense, observing the phenomenology of contemporary migrations, this implies two consequent processes:

In his study, Pennington points out and explains the cause of conformism. According to Pennington, the theory of social comparison is a theory according to which an individual in situations that are unclear and in which there is no basis for independent judgment, because he is unsure of himself, seeks authority and follows the answers of those he believes know the problem (Pennington, 1997). According to another theory, conformity arises as a result of direct group pressure, the existence of manifest norms and values within which certain forms of behaviour are rewarded and others punished. Modern migrations, as a security challenge and a potential threat to the national security of the countries located on the Western - Balkan route, in coordination with the individual and group characteristics of the phenomenon of migration, open up space for the realization of the doctrine of radicalization, especially towards individuals and groups whose vulnerability is pronounced.

In the framework of criminal psychology, numerous theories have been provided about different influences on individuals or groups, with the aim of causing or achieving conformist or deviant, delinquent or, in the last instance, criminogenic behaviour. Influence factors depend not only on the type and intensity, but also on the personality of the individual. Thus, one or more factors of influence on an individual may produce no consequences on another. Some of the influencing factors according to Pennington (1997) are:

According to Hasković (2003): "Today's migrations represent a catastrophe that affects a certain number of people in different environments and cultures, and in connection with this, the question of common characteristics related to psychological processes that are the result of uniform psychological situations that these people go through arises”. The very act of migration, as a deliberate change of residence or place of residence, should be viewed as a process in which individuals and groups of migrants are psychological – social types, the cause of which the migrations we observe are always socially caused. Hasković himself (2003) indicates that the process of migration as a psycho – social agent is a product of a set of stressogenic factors, which can lead to the loosening of barriers that prevent individuals from resorting to some criminal act. The entire migration process, from the decision, collecting logistics, leaving the country, relatives, friends, work represents a kind of trauma that affects every individual, but depending on the personality, it depends on whether there will be conformist or deviant or delinquent or criminogenic behaviour. Horvat, Lindberg, and Miser (2015), divide the migrant process from a psychological point of view into four stages:

Each of the stages represents a separate social situation, which independently or in coordination with one or the other can influence an individual and decide about a certain behaviour. If such social situations are accompanied by the influence of individuals or groups within the migrant groups themselves, then there is a greater possibility for radical – extremist – terrorist penetration.

If we accept the scientific fact that the goal of social activities is to adapt the individual to new social patterns of behaviour, and that a certain number of individuals cannot defend themselves from such social activities, then the outcome in the context of early radicalization among this population is certain. In order to survive for each individual, most people, including migrants, especially in unfamiliar situations, have needs. One of the key needs on the road, which is accompanied by exceptional stressogenic factors, is the need for safety. In his scale (Hasković, 2003), Maslov focuses special attention on the need for security. In the framework of these needs, in comparison with migrant processes, the need for physical security, stability, protection, order and structure initially arises. On the migrant journey, individuals and groups face various obstacles, from water, lack of food, aggressive reactions of individuals or groups, repressive apparatuses, and in this respect, it is quite logical that each individual has a need for his own security. To ensure his own safety on such a journey, he usually joins a certain group. Such a group can contribute to the objective and subjective safety of that individual by its actions, and attention. Thus, in addition to the need for security, the need for belonging and for appreciation or self – esteem becomes secondary, that is, primary, i.e., a unique whole. This phase, according to Dizdarević and Brkić (2016, 138-151), represents a phase in which there may be potential connections between persons in charge of recruitment, that is, the introduction of individuals into the group, where they will be misled that this is exactly the group (institution) that will provide security, love, and restore respect. Observing the phenomenology and statistics of migrants by the weight of the country of origin they come from, it is undeniable that they belong to those countries where the geopolitical influence of the USA, France, Germany, and Great Britain is continuous and intense. After the aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine, and a year after the armed conflict, an increase in the number of migrants from Chechnya is evident. If the different geopolitical influences of large countries are observed, in relation to the countries that suffer the consequences of these influences, then the conclusion of Brkić and Dizdarević on the thesis: "the existence or rather the extension of rivalry between powerful blocs and Arab countries" is more than tenable. From the security aspect of modern migration, which is faced by the countries of the Western Balkans, as well as the countries of the European Union, another security characteristic, or risk, stands out. In the last few years, the world and thus the countries of the European Union have faced numerous acts of terrorism, which, to some extent, threatened the values of democracy. Contemporary migrations from the security aspect and the thesis of the rivalry of the geopolitical influences of the great powers on Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and other countries have created a space for changing the modus operandi. Migrant waves, whose main goal is to penetrate the soil of European countries, necessarily bring with them a part, i.e., a space for the layering of violence. Thus, the space is opened to provide an environment for recruitment, i.e., early radicalization of those persons who have nothing to do with belonging to extremist and terrorist groups, through the wave of migrants. With such modus operandi, violence from the countries of the Middle East is transferred to potential violence directed at individuals, groups, states, and values of the European Union. By changing the thesis, that is, the location for the use of violence, the paradigm of terrorist organizations and activities changes. Their activities will no longer be focused on their own territory, but through a network system will be spread over the countries of the Western Balkans and the European Union.

In the security literature, one can find various phrases such as: "radicalization that leads to terrorism," "terrorist radicalization," "violent radicalization," "radicalization," and "Islamic political radicalization" (Lalić & Šikman, 2018). Radicalization as a theoretical term and concept is a positivist action and as such can be a force with the aim of achieving beneficial change (OSCE, 2014). Radicalism in the theoretical sense as a concept was developed and defined according to the principle of positivist elements in the context of accepting and representing certain ideas, based on arguments. According to Abazović (2002), "Radicalism is rootedness, uncompromisingness, thoroughness and consistency in the representation of an opinion, action, theory or ideology, that is, focus on the thorough implementation of a certain political position to the extreme limits, to the root of things". According to the structural elements of radicalism, it is evident that in theory and even in practice itself, uncompromisingness is seen as a type of representation of a certain idea, based on one's own understandings and arguments. Not a single structural element of the definition of radicalism is permeated by the element of verbal or physical or psychological violence. This is why radicalization is a process. If such a process is consumed by positive ideas, whether political, religious, or scientific, then radicalization can be viewed as a positivist reaction. The process in which the possibility of abuse, radicalization, changes in the very structure, modus operandi, and consequences. Dizdarević and Brkić (2020, 195) point out that the greatest danger of radicalization consists in the structure and power of transmitting information. The same authors point out that the key elements of contemporary global radicalization are: "a global idea, religion as a means of manipulation, money as an instrument and an ideological – social – deviant environment as a suitable ground". According to the same authors (2020, 195-205), radicalization is: "a process of indoctrination in which the power of manipulation through force and the power of information is applied to risky groups of people with the aim of creating a suitable ground for recruitment for the purpose of achieving political and religious domination". The authors of the manual for the assessment and rehabilitation of violent and extreme prisoners in BiH (Council of Europe, 2021) define radicalization as: "a process in which a person adopts extreme views or behaviours in order to legitimize the use of violence". The practical concept of radicalization as a negativist action that consumes elements that lead to extremism and terrorism according to Dizdarević and Brkić (2020, 124) consists in the implementation of six phases:

1. a well – designed and propaganda – organized network of imaginations, 

2. the phase of first contacts based on external stimuli, which achieves emotional interest, 

3. phase of personal contacts, 

4. phase of group gatherings, 

5. phase of homogenization through common coexistence, 

a. phase of prolonged radicalization,

6. phase of consequences of radicalization.

Thus, radicalization as a practical concept, that is, a process that can and does lead to terrorism, could be defined as: "A process that is operationalized with a clear policy and strategy in a latent or semi – latent way according to the principle of general to particular." This means that an idea, through the Internet and/or other forms of communication, abusing religion, descends to the lowest local communities. The goal of radicalization is the permeation of an idea through a critical mass or individuals with the goal of violent indoctrination. Contemporary global radicalization can be defined as a pyramidal network transmission of an idea, by creating infrastructural mechanisms for self – sustainability and further expansion of the idea in order to achieve a sustainable economic factor, on the basis of which it penetrates into a suitable ground for indoctrination through smaller centres and/or cells for the purpose of manifestation or demonstration or participating in terror" (Dizdarević & Brkić, 2020).

The commitment of the European Union in the fight against terrorism can be divided into two basic stages:

Within the framework of the first stage, from 1975 to be precise, the then member states of TREVI, gathering representatives of the Ministry of Justice and the Interior, showed a decisive role in cooperation and exchange of information with the aim of preventing and suppressing terrorism. The initial act of terrorism on the basis of which the TREVI organization was created is the act of terrorism known as the Munich Massacre, which occurred at the Summer Olympics in 1972, when eight Palestinian terrorists from the Black September organization killed two and kidnapped nine Israeli athletes. All the hostages were killed during the operation of the German police in the rescue attempt, among which five of the kidnappers were killed, and three were arrested and handed over to Libya (Haberfield, et al., 2009). Since the Munich terrorist act, terrorism has taken on completely different dimensions, which in modern security science are designated as global, that is, international terrorism. This led to the need to adopt legal instruments in this area as part of the international legal order, and the leading role in this process was taken by the United Nations, while at the level of the European Union since 1993, legal instruments have been adopted successively and to a large extent depended on universal international instruments (Pedić, 2012). The international community, and especially the European Union, intensified its activities in the field of preventing and suppressing terrorism after the terrorist attack on the United States of America (hereinafter the USA) on September 11, 2001. After the terrorist act of 2001, modern forms of terrorism were modified to the extent that all EU member states, as well as the entire international community, were further homogenized in such a way that all resources, intelligence, police, judicial, military, financial and diplomatic, were united around common ideas. EU law represents a specific legal system in which there are areas of different scope of the degree of renunciation of sovereignty by the member states, i.e. areas in the express scope of the Union, areas in the express scope of the member states and areas in which the Union and the member states share powers (Pedić, 2012). On the basis of the primary sources of EU law, but also secondary ones such as Directives and Regulations, the EU system, especially through the foreign and security policy, tried to prescribe a whole set of measures for the fight against terrorism. Wars and armed conflicts in the Western Balkans, as well as wars in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Iraq, have revealed the ideas and possibilities of terrorist groups, which, through wave and network planning, have spread acts of violence to the territory of almost all countries of the world, and especially to the territory of the EU. Some of the individuals who have been identified as members of terrorist groups have also been located in the territory of the Western Balkan countries, such as Serbia and Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the security literature for the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is indicated that, "From the country that represented a suitable ground for the destination of individuals and groups, since 1996/97, BiH becomes a country where the process of indoctrination and radicalization of local citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, i.e. individuals and groups, begins" (Azinović & Jusić, 2016). In their concluding remarks, Dizdarević and Brkić (2020, 185) provide a possible definition of contemporary terrorist threats through the system of migration and radicalization: "Ideological migration terrorism can be defined as a form of change of residence, for the sake of ideologically radical indoctrination, with the aim of changing residence, that is, for international migration execution of extremist terrorist acts". Migrant waves that are moving through the countries of the Western Balkans, and thus also through Bosnia and Herzegovina, represent a kind of threat, namely:

Various geopolitical influences of large countries on countries such as Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, as well as the aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine, have caused contemporary forms of world migration. The phenomenology of such migrations in the last few years has brought with it some of the terrorist acts committed by individuals who have gone through such migrations. The social environment in the countries that were affected by various geopolitical influences resulted in the extremely large migrations that we faced, primarily through the Western Balkan route. Although almost thirty years have passed since the last wars in the Western Balkan countries, the social environment within these countries directly affected the disruption of the value system in all parts of society, in which the importance of knowledge is especially devalued at the expense of non–knowledge. For security scientists, the phenomenology of contemporary migrations represents a burden that undoubtedly indicates that the new world order, especially large security and geopolitical subjects, and thus tectonic changes in the field of security. Thus, migrations in the 21st century, considering characteristics such as: size, grouping, gender, age, logistics and connections, they must also be viewed as a security phenomenon, i.e., a potential security threat, i.e., a risk. On the other hand, if terrorist acts have already been detected in the EU countries as a result of migration, then this is a sufficient basis and also an obligation to investigate the migration process as a security phenomenon. In this process, on the basis of earlier research, spaces were detected as a social and psychological environment for the recruitment of persons for the purpose of radicalization, extremism, and terrorism. This provides a scientific space that, on the basis of established scientific arguments, provides a clear difference between migrations in the 60s of the 20th century and contemporary migrations in the 21st century. The distinction is manifested through changes in the modus operandi, which in its phenomenon also consumes possible forms of radicalization, as well as other characteristics, such as number, groupings, logistical means, and connections with organized criminal groups. In migrant waves, individuals, and groups for the sake of their own safety, psycho – physical characteristics and survival are forced to join groups that, by using various forms of manipulation, based on common characteristics, religion, identity, emotions and manipulation, open space for recruitment and radicalization in the context of the production of extremist and terrorist forms behaviour as a threat to the countries of the Western Balkans and the European Union. The stages of contemporary radicalization through migrant waves enable the creation of potentially effective weapons among individuals who may remain undetected by the security services as radicalized, or as members of a terrorist organization, thus posing a serious threat to the security of EU countries. By determining the social space within migrant movements and the influence of various stressogenic factors, they enable individuals and groups to create a radicalization process in the context of terrorist actions. The social environment of migrations, injuries, and disorganization within the psycho – physical condition of individuals and the influence of external personal stimuli turns conformist behaviour into a potential weapon. With these acts, the doctrine of moving violence from one area to another, on European soil, is realized. Geopolitical influences on countries such as Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine have enabled uncontrolled migration, which also moves a number of elements of different forms of violence with migration, from individual violence to violence directed against modern democratic values of civilized societies.

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